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VORTEX FORECAST AND OPERATIONS SUMMARY
1100 CDT SUN APR 2 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100: NO GO
TARGET AREA: NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE

BACKDOOR RTN OF LL MSTR APRS TO BE UNDERWAY VIA RIO GRANDE AND W TX AS DEWPTS 
ARE INCRG AND SFC/850 FLOW BCMG MORE FVBL THIS MRNG. HOWVR, UPR SYS IS CLOSING
OFF OVR SRN NV AND ITS ARRIVAL IN VORTEX OPS AREA WL BE DLAD TIL BEYOND DAY1,
IF IT GETS HERE AT ALL. 12Z ETA DEPARTS FM PREV MDL RUNS IN DROPPING LOW INTO 
NRN MEX. CDFNT TO N EXPCD TO DROP SEWD INTO AREA THIS AFTN AND TNGT, BUT WITH
MID LVL FORCING RMNG W OF AREA AND MSTR RTN EXPCD TO BE MARGINAL THRU THIS EVE, 
POTL FOR TARGETABLE STRMS IS VRY SLIM. 

FOCUS THUS IS ON DAY2. WRN SYS EXPCD TO BE SLOWER THAN FCST BY MDLS IN COMING EWD, 
WITH 12Z ETA SETTING THE TREND IN DELAYING EWD MOVMT. SFC LOW EXPCD TO DVLP ON
CDFNT VCNTY MAF-SJT AREA, WHILE MUCH-IMPVD RTN FLOW OF MSTR/INSTBY BCMS ESTBLSHD
DURG DAY MON INTO WM SECTOR ACRS CNTRL/ERN TX. ONE CONCERN ATTM IS PSBL OUTBRK OF 
WDSPRD CONVCTN ALG FNT ACRS SERN OK SWWD INTO TX , SUPPORTED BY FCST OF STG VV 
AND WK CAP. THUS CUD GUNGE LOW LVLS AND SHOVE WM SECTOR OUT OF RANGE BY MON EVE.
PROGGED MID/UPR JET FM BIG BEND NEWD AND SLY LLJ DVLPG ACRS ERN TX YIELDS FVBL
SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT WITH FCST SRH ARND 350-400 INVOF SHV MON EVE.
HOWVR, INSTBY AXIS WITH EXPCD CAPES ARND 1500 J/KG IS PROGGED FRTHR W ACRS CNTRL
TX, ESPLY IF UPR SYS IS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. COMBO OF SHEAR/INSTBY APRS MARGINALLY 
FVBL FOR ROTG STRMS IN WM SECTOR, BUT WL WM SECTOR BE IN RANGE FOR FIELD OPS? MLB

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 
12Z-04Z (DAY2)...
 			DAY1	DAY2
LIGHTNING		70	90
SEVERE			30	40
TORNADOES		 2	10
TARGETABLE STORM	 2	10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL		---	24040
SUPERCELL 		---	27030

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY...
LIGHTNING		---	1200
1ST SEVERE RPT		---	1330
1ST TORNADO		---	1430