ZCZC OKCWRKOKC 000
TTAA00 KOKC 031800
03 April 1995

Challenging day ... mstr return is being inhibited by cool pool ovr ern TX but a
narrow band of 50+ dewpts is being brought around the wrn side of the cool pool.
Hi slo lvl helicities prsnt this a.m. at MAF, DRT, FWD being helped by the 12Z 
remnants of the LLJ.  Good 700-500 delta-t values (>20) ovr srn NM and swrn TX.

There are two major issues ... (1) progs do not show good 700 mb winds phasing
with mstr and instability ... PCGRIDS wind progs look best in sern TX while best
thermodynamics appear to be in a narrow corridor from ADM to ABI to SJT;  (2) the
early indications of persistent lo lvl cldiness over swrn TX has suggd that a
VORTEX ops day is too big a gamble.

There is a non-negligible chance that (a) the lo clouds will break up in swrn TX
by 1200 CDT, leading to an ewrd mvmt of the dry line which would initiate stg
tstms in mid- to late afternoon (after 1500 CDT);  (b) mesoscale wnd max will 
appear magically in vcnty 700 mb (this has happened in similar set-ups).  Thus,
there still is a chnc that a some isold supercells could dvlp in swrn TX and be
come tornadic in the wrn parts of N TX.  Expect cap will inhibit development to
the S of the srn limit of the VORTEX ops area.

Models are not handling the sys in sern AZ / swrn NM very well ... blv that the
winds suggest stgly that the sys will not dig swrd much more and as it moves ewd
the dynamics may brush the good thermodynamics setting up in a narrow

	Doswell/Crisp
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