VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1100 AM CDT APRIL 06 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA: N/A  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: N/A  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Virtually no chance for targetable storms today, on the backside
of a shortwave trough, with only shallow, residual, marginal low
level moisture.  Hi 700-500 delta-t's are associated with ridging
aloft and dry air, so best chncs for deep convection of the non-
targetable variety in northern parts of the VORTEX ops area are 
associated with minor waves in the northwesterly flow, where the
cap may be weaker ... but marginal moisture is even less appealing
as one goes northward.

Models indicate an improving situation as we head toward the week-
end.  Last night's AVN and this morning's ETA look very similar
through 48 h from 12Z today.  One ripple is coming out tomorrow
with a surface low in the TX panhandle ... moisture return may be
minimal and weak flow aloft means chances are just barely worth
mentioning, at least for targetable storms.  We have alerted NWS
sites in VORTEX area for possible operations tomorrow, but we ex-
pect to cancel that alert by early tomorrow unless the situation
improves markedly.

Models suggest that Saturday may be quite interesting, with im-
proved flow aloft ahead of negatively tilted, vigorous trough,
better moisture, continued high lapse rates, etc.  This has the
potential to be our first big ops day, and models even suggest
a continuing potential on Sunday.  Obviously, a lot remains to be
resolved, but optimism runs rampant today.

	Doswell/McCammon 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   20      40
SEVERE                      05      20
TORNADOES                   05      10
TARGETABLE STORM            02      10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   270/25
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   300/15

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-    1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-    1545
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-    1700