VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1100 AM CDT APRIL 07 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  N/A  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  none  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Yesterday's optimism has evaporated regarding today ... the
low level moisture is pretty shallow, and the ridging that 
has continued to develop high lapse rates is also enhancing 
the likelihood of strong capping ... at 12Z the highest 
delta-t's have moved off the high country and are now over
KS, and western OK and TX, along with the warmest tempera-
tures at 700 mb.  The surface moist tongue is pretty shallow
except where the warm advection has lifted it into thunder-
storms over eastern NE, and the prospects for significant 
deepening of the moisture are still about 24 h away.

Also, the models are slowing down the approach of the major
trough forecast to blast through the ridge in the western
Rockies.  Thus, the current weak flow is expected to persist
for the next 12-18 h, with a slow increase during the night
tonight.  The usual uncertainties persist with the models as
long as the major system they seem to agree will develop re-
mains offshore ... RAMSDIS loops suggest the westerlies are
beginning to increase in CA and THE major trough may be at
about 145 deg W at 14Z.  Bottom line is that there is some
chance for good storms to develop over the northwestern part
of the VORTEX ops area late tomorrow evening as moisture 
beins to deepen and increase with the low level nocturnal 
boudnary layer wind increase tonight.  Thus, there is some
prospect for a reasonably good dryline setup tomorrow even-
ing, and the trick will be to get something going.  Wind
profiles are also somewhat dubious but could be marginally
capable of supporting supercells by tomorrow evening.

Now, it appears that Sunday will be a significant day.  As 
with all such situations, the timing will be critical.  By
then, the return flow should be tapping the Gulf moisture
and the wind profiles over the high plains should be much
improved over the current flow.  Models suggest a major out-
break is possible if things come together in the right way.

	Doswell/McCammon

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   20      50
SEVERE                      05      40
TORNADOES                   02      30
TARGETABLE STORM            02      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   270/25
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   310/10

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   1700 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   1745
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   1830