VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT SAT APRIL 8 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
STG CAP AND LACK OF MID-UPR LVL SUPPORT PRECLUDES DVLPMT OF
CONVCTN TDA ACRS MST OF VORTEX AREA. DEEPER LL MSTR IS SLOW
TO RTN TO AREA, WHICH LEAVES SHALLOW MOIST LYR. MIXING MAY 
ALLOW DRYLN TO MOV E TDA, PERHAPS AS FAR AS CNTRL KS/OK, BUT 
DRY AIR SHUD RETREAT WWD AGN TNGT. ERN KS WAS CONSIDERED TDA, 
WHERE WKR CAP AND MORE FVBL SHEAR INVOF SFC BNDRY SUGGEST A 
SLGTLY HIER SVR THREAT. HOWVR, RELTVLY WK MID LVL WNDS INDC
ONLY MARGINAL TORNADO POTL, AND FNT EXPCD TO LIFT NWD INTO 
NCNTRL/NERN KS AND THUS N OF VORTEX AREA.

DAY2 POTL APRS TO BE DECRG AS WELL. 12Z ETA FCSTG IMPRSV NMBRS
WITH HELICITY 4-500 AND EHI IN 4-6 RANGE - OVER MO. WE HV 
DOUBTS THAT CAP WL WKN ENOUGH DURG AFTN FRTHR S AND SW 
ACRS SERN KS, ERN OK AND NRN TX. DRYLN EXPCD TO PUNCH EWD
INTO ERN KS AND CNTRL OK AS SFC LOW DVLPS OVR KS. ALTHO NOSE
OF STG 500MB JET IS FCST TO DRIVE EWD INTO OK, UPR JET (250)
RMNS FRTHR NW ACRS NWRN OK INTO KS AND LEAVES MUCH OF WM
MOIST SECTOR IN UNFVBL LEFT EXIT REGION. LLJ ALSO IN A 
LESS-THAN-FVBL POSN, ORIENTED SW-NE ACRS NERN TX AND AR. ONE
HOPE FOR GO OPS WUD BE IF SFC LOW HANGS BACK ACRS WRN OK - 
WHICH RMNS PSBL CONSIDERING 500 VORT MAX HANGING BACK 
OVR NM. IF THIS OCCURS, RESULTANT BACKING OF LL FLOW AHD
OF DRYLN CUD INCR LL CONVGC ENUF TO FIRE DRYLN FRTHR W
ACRS OK. ANOTR PSBLTY IS IF UPR SPEED MAX IS EJECTED FASTER 
THAN PROGGED, WHICH WUD PLACE DRYLN OVR OK AND N TX IN MORE
FVBL RGT ENTRANCE REGION DURG OR SHRTLY AFT MAX HTG. 12Z NGM
HINTS AT THIS, WITH LIFT DVLPG OVR NW TX BY 00Z AND INCRG
DRAMATICALLY ALG DRYLN THRU CNTRL OK AND NRN TX BY 03Z.
OTRW, DRYLN IN OK/TX WUD BE MORE LKLY TO FIRE DURG 
EVE AT THE EARLIEST, AND MORE LKLY AFDK.

BRANICK/BURGESS

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   30      90
SEVERE                      20      60
TORNADOES                    5      30
TARGETABLE STORM            10      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             25030   23545
SUPERCELL                 29024   26535

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1700L   1530L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1745L   1600L
1ST TORNADO               1830L   1645L