VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 10 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA: N/A  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  N/A  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Once again, it is demonstrated that with strong dynamics, it
is difficult to get the timing right and put all the ingre-
dients together.  The Gulf of Mexico has finally opened up
and high lapse rates abound over the area, but the squall 
line that got going this morning has thrown a monkey wrench
into the works and convection is breaking out over much of
the warm sector as a short wave trough moves out of the base
of the trough.

A big negative factor today has been the increasingly merid-
ional character of the winds aloft, giving unidirectional
wind profiles.  Models and 12Z data show that the system is
trying to dig further south, so that the short wave troughs
embedded in the flow will be creating the best wind profiles
well south of the VORTEX ops area.  There probably will be a
supercell in TX today, but it appears unlikely that it will
be reachable.

If there was some residual moisture left behind, there might
have been some possibility for "cold air funnels" tomorrow,
as the cold low aloft moves over.  However, the cold air at
the surface is progged to push the surface moisture far 
enough away to preclude much chance even for that, for day2.

With the cold air pushing southward behind the convection,
our biggest concern will be how far south the front will
push into the Gulf and how long it will take to reopen the
Gulf.  MRF suggests a series of strongly dynamic systems
will continue to approach, so perhaps one of them will set
up properly for an outbreak of storms in the ops area.

	Doswell/Janish

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     20
SEVERE                      80      05
TORNADOES                   10      02
TARGETABLE STORM            10      02

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-