VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1030 AM CDT APRIL 13 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1030 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA: NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Grim situation continues to negate even very modest poten-
tial ... shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow behind
the major cyclone scooting out north of the Great Lakes has
pushed through the area.  This trough has augmented the dev-
elopment of the post-frontal anticyclone and kept the flow
on the Gulf offshore, thereby preventing any prospects for
moisture return.  The significant shortwave trough progged
to move through the area tomorrow, therefore, will have very
little moisture to work with, and the morning RUC and ETA
show the best warm advection to be north of the VORTEX ops
area.  The RUC from 12Z hints at some moisture pushing into
old Mexico so there is a chance for some thunder tomorrow
afternoon and evening over the high plains, but this does
not appear to have much chance even to be marginally severe.

The models hint at some chance again early next week, and 
the pattern they depict suggests a series of troughs moving
through the area every few days, so hope continues that one
of these strong systems will get the right ingredients to-
gether.

	Doswell/McCammon

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   02      20
SEVERE                      00      02
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-