VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 14 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Although surface map and RAMSDIS precipitable water loops
are showing a narrow band of moisture return through central
TX, OK, and KS, it appears that this is unlikely to mean a
significant chance for good convection to develop today.  At
700 mb, movement of the steep lapse rates (as seen in the 
H700 temperatures) is over the returning moisture, but it is
quite likely to remain capped today in the VORTEX ops area,
with the best chances for thunderstorms well north and east
in the warm advection zone.  The cap should act to allow the
continued moisture return, without too much threat of having
the moisture "heated out" during the afternoon.  Some high-
based convection could develop late in the afternoon over 
the high plains of the TX and OK panhandles and swrn KS, but
this is not likely to be targetable.

The interesting scenario is the possibility for tomorrow, as
discussed in the early Day2 SELS outlook.  Depending on how
the cold front behaves overnight, it could become quasi-
stationary near the KS-OK border, with a surface low some-
where in swrn KS-TX panhandle area.  With the continuing re-
turn of moisture under increasing southwesterly flow aloft,
sufficient moisture could pool near the boundary on Saturday
With backed low-level winds behind the front it is possible
to imagine a sounding with just enough moisture and a pretty
decent hodograph somewhere in the vicinity of the front, in
north central OK - south central KS.  We have used this
morning's ETA to make some model sounding and hodograph
forecasts that look as if they might be close to having all
the ingredients.  Expect the threat of storms along the dry-
line to be low due to capping.  A lot of good things have to
happen for this scenario to work out, but ...

Looking beyond tomorrow, progs show the timing of the next
strong system as coming too late in the day for Sunday, and
perhaps too early for a good show on Monday.  Given the nor-
mal uncertainties about timing, it appears that Monday is 
a better shot than Sunday as of this morning.

	Doswell/McCammon

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   30      60
SEVERE                      10      40
TORNADOES                   02      20
TARGETABLE STORM            05      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   250/35
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   290/20

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   1645
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   1730