VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT SAT APRIL 15 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE. NWS UPR AIR SITES
 REQUESTED TO BE ON STANDBY FOR 4/16.

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
MARGINAL CONDS TDA AS DEEPER LL MSTR RTNS GRDLY. RDGG EXPCD TO INCR 
ALF BHD NRN PLAINS SHTWV, WHICH IS EXPCD TO WRM MID LVLS 
FRTHR AND INCR CAP STRENGTH. LL CONVGC ALG FNT/DRYLN IS ONLY
AVBL FORCING, BUT IS NOT EXPCD TO BE STG ENUF TO OVERCOME
CAP. EXTENSIVE SUBTRPCL CI OVRSPRDG AREA ALSO MINIMIZES CHCS
OF ACHIEVING CONVCTV TEMP. AS WITH LAST WKEND, WE CNSDRD AREA
OF NWRN TX WHERE LL MSTR MIGHT WRAP NWWD N OF SFC FNTL ZN, 
BUT LOSS OF INSOLATION FM THICKENING CI PRECLUDES A SUFFICIENT
RISK TO CONDUCT FIELD OPS. JET-LVL CONVGC PROGGED IN RGT EXIT
RGN OF UPR JET ALSO EXPCD TO REDUCE CHCS OF DVLPMT. THERE IS
AN INCRG POTL FOR NOCTURNAL DVLPMT ALG AND N OF QSTNRY FNT
ACRS NRN OK AS INCRG LLJ INTRSCTS BNDRY, BUT WELL AFT PD OF
INTEREST FOR VORTEX. THIS DVLPMT WUD LKLY IMPACT DAY2 OTLK.

DAY 2 PERHAPS MORE INTRSTG AS MSTR SHUD BE IN BTR POSN. SFC 
FNT EXPCD TO LIFT NWD INTO NRN OK/SERN KS BY SUN EVE, PER 
AVN WHICH COMPROMISES BTWN RADICALLY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS OF 
ETA AND NGM. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALF AS UPR JET INCRSS AND 
SAGS SEWD WL ENHC MID/UPR SPD SHEAR INVOF SFC FNT, WHILE LL
DIR SHEAR RMNS FVBL. IF LOW LVLS ARE NOT CONTAMINATED BY 
NOCTURNAL CONVCTN, THEN AREA FM NRN OK INTO SERN KS MAY BE
SET UP FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT. WRN EXTENT OF RISK WL BE
DETERMINIED BY PROGRESS OF LL MSTR AS IT RTNS NWD. BRANICK 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   50      70
SEVERE                      30      50
TORNADOES                   10      30
TARGETABLE STORM            10      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23035   23043
SUPERCELL                 26525   26033

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1630L   1500L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1730L   1530L
1ST TORNADO               1815L   1615L