VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT SUN APRIL 16 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  NW/NCNTRL OK BTWN CSM AND END
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: CLASS SNDGS BUT
NO SUPPLEMENTAL NWS SNDGS. ARCHIVE II REQUESTED FM ALL 88D
SITES VCNTY NRN OK SRN KS. 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
LL WINDS VEERING ACRS SCNTRL KS, REDUCING CONVGC AND DIR 
SHEAR INVOF BNDRY ACRS SRN/SERN KS. 12Z NGM/ETA AND LTST SFC
ANAL INDC FNT SAGGING SWD INTO NRN/WRN OK THIS AFTN, WHILE 
LTST RUC HINTS AT BACKING OF LL FLOW AHD OF FNT AND RESULTANT 
POOLING OF LL MSTR IN NW OK. PERSISTENT CI WL INHIBIT DIURNAL 
HTG, BUT CAP FCST TO BE WKR FRTHR N WHICH FAVORS A MORE NRN 
TARGET AREA. 

FRTHR SW, DRYLN EXPCD TO MAKE ONLY SLGT EWD PROGRESS 
THIS AFTN ACRS SWRN OK AND WRN TX DUE TO DEPTH OF MOIST 
LYR. STGR AND MORE BACKED SLY FLOW AHD OF DRYLN ACRS WRN/
CNTRL TX IMPLIES POTL FOR MSTR CONVGC TO FOCUS ALG DRYLN IN 
CDS-ABI-LBB AREA DURG AFTN, ESPLY IF STGR WLY LL FLOW DVLPS
BHD DRYLN. THIS AREA ALSO EXPCD TO BE ON NRN EDGE OF STGR 
CAP, AND THUS CUD BE HELD DOWN BY CI WHICH WL CONT TO REDUCE
AFTN HTG.

POWERHOUSE TROF RIPS NEWD INTO HI PLAINS ON MON SETTING UP
POTL SGFNT SVR EPISODE. ATTM WE FEEL THAT MDLS ARE TOO FAST 
AT DRIVING THE DRYLN EWD THRU OK. EXPC DRYLN TO RETREAT WELL
INTO W TX TNGT IN RESPONSE TO PRES/WND ADJUSTMENTS TO APCHG
UPR SYS. SFC LOW EXPCD TO ORGANIZE OVR SERN CO LATE TNGT AND 
INTSFY OVR WRN KS MON, WITH DRYLN PUNCHING STGLY THRU SWRN
KS AND WRN HLF OK /RATHER THAN ENTIRE STATE/ DURG DAY. 
STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS IMPLIES THAT TIMING AGN WL BE CRITICAL.
SQLN DVLPMT MAY PVL VS ISOLD SUPERCELLS, AND THE USUAL 
RISK OF CONTAMINATION FM OVNGT CONVCTN LOOMS. WHATEVER DVLPS
ON MON WL MOVE RPDLY AND LKLY WL MAKE IT TUFF FOR FIELD
TEAMS TO STAY WTH. 

BRANICK/MCCAMMON

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   90     100
SEVERE                      80      95
TORNADOES                   20      50
TARGETABLE STORM            30      60

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23038   23052
SUPERCELL                 26030   25042

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1500L   1200L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1545L   1230L
1ST TORNADO               1630L   1330L