VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 17 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  GO
TARGET AREA: North TX/Southwestern OK  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  Special 18Z and
21Z soundings from all raob sites in the VORTEX ops area and
Archive II from KLTX, FWS, KFDR, AMA, LBB, DYS   

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

potent situation dvplg this mrng as high energy short wave 
lifts out of long-wave trof and acrs the srn and cntrl 
plains.  the most problematic feature is a sfc cold air 
pool which has moved swd to nr a muskogee-waurika-20 s sps
line at 16z.  the bndry was beginning to lift nwd at 16z as
a stg dry punch with a pres fall/rise couplet movd newd out
of se and scntrl nm. at 15z ruc helicities were showing 
values of 250-400  in a band from near abi to the ern pnhdl
with capes nr 2500 in the abi area.

as the dry punch apprchs the slower movg wrmfnt
stg-svr tstms wl begin to dvlp abt 1330-1400 local time nr
a lbb-25 ne abi-70 w act ln.  other storms wl form nr the
wrmfnt where low-lvl turning of the winds wl be maximized.
combo of helicities nr 400 and capes of 3000-3500 suggests
a significant threat of supercells and tornadoes acrs mainly
extrm nrn n tx and srn/swrn ptns of ok.  threat of tornadoes
will continue into the evening acrs mainly the ern 1/2 of ok.      
the srn bndry of the threat area will be dictated by a stg
capping inversion...whereas the nrn extent of the tornado
threat area will be determined by how far the wrmfnt 
retreats this aftn/eve.



	Moller/Doswell

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     05
SEVERE                      100     02
TORNADOES                   60      02
TARGETABLE STORM            90      02

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             210/40  -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 235/30  -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1330   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1430   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               1600   -N/A-