VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 20 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The passage of the major short wave system yesterday would
seem to preclude much of a chance for ops today.  There is a
very low probability scenario, in view of continuing mid-40s
and greater dewpoints in the eastern half of OK and north-
east TX.  The weakening system that has moved out is no
longer of significance but another secondary trough in NM
at 12Z is forecast to move across the ops area today.  If
the residual moisture hangs in during daytime heating, there
may be just enough destabilization, possibly helped along by
some H500 cold advection, to produce some thunderstorms to-
day.  This is more or less a "cold air funnel" scenario and
it appears more likely at the moment that the heating will
simply cause the disappearance of the residual surface dew-
points unless the ground is wet enough to keep evapotrans-
pirating into the post-frontal dry air.  This is not deemed
a sufficient likelihood to consider operations today.

The secondary system also may have thrown a monkey wrench
into the chances for the next system tomorrow, as the new 
ETA shows little prospect for moisture return, with a low-
level ridge on the Gulf coast until after 18Z tomorrow.  It
appears that the passage of this secondary system will push
the moisture far enough away to reduce tomorrow's potential
significantly.  If so, progs suggest we may be out of it un-
til at least mid-week next week, if MRF solution of a major
system breaking under the progged ridge building to the west
has any reality to it.

	Doswell/Crisp 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   30      20
SEVERE                      10      05
TORNADOES                   05      02
TARGETABLE STORM            05      02

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-