VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1000 AM CDT APRIL 22 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1000 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Very interesting day ... significant elevated convection is
the story today.  Very moist, unstable air is riding up over
the shallow cold airmass that has overspread most of the 
VORTEX ops area.  12Z data shows a closed shortwave system
over northwestern NM that is progged to move eastward fairly
slowly.  This should continue to enhance the instability ...
above the cold pool, the wind profiles show substantial he-
licity, so mesocyclones are quite likely ... early storms
near SPS are already showing mesocyclone signatures.  With
this situation, it appears quite probable that meoscyclonic
storms will continue to move over the cold air.  The likeli-
hood of tornadoes is rather low owing to the surface airmass
but the storms are quite likely to be severe.  There are a 
few isolated cases where tornadoes have happened in this
type of situation, but the chances appear slim enough that
VORTEX operations have been shut down as of this morning.

The progs show another shortwave trough rotatiting through 
the base of the trough tomorrow, but it appears that any 
chances for deep convection, elevated or otherwise, are not
good anywhere close to the VORTEX ops area.

	Doswell/Crisp

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     30
SEVERE                      98      10
TORNADOES                   10      05
TARGETABLE STORM            98      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             220/55  -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 235/45  -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 0700   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            0945   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               1030   -N/A-