VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1015 AM CDT APRIL 23 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1015 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool, stable airmass has spread over the ops area and is now
(at 12Z) pushing out into the Gulf, thereby effectively 
shutting us down for several days.  Apparently because of
the widespread convection during the past 24 h, instability
has decreased everywhere in the warm air and the only good
lapse rates now in mid-troposphere are ahead of the short
wave trough dropping southward into the northern plains.
There is precious little moisture to work with so do not 
expect thunder with this trough, although some high-based
thunder is a remote possibility over the high terrain.  The
only severe threat would be a microburst from a virga storm.
The situation looks very comparable tomorrow, as the trough
is progged to continue dropping southward and may brush the
VORTEX ops area, but with its negligible moisture even thun-
der is at best a remote possibility.

Yesterday's MRF suggested chances for next Thurs and Fri,
but last night's brings a trough dwon in the polar airstream
for that time period and shows a surface ridge along the 
Gulf coast.  It's hard to put much faith in either run at
this time.  Ensemble runs valid for Thursday show consider-
able disagreement over timing and structure of the system
progged to be affecting the VORTEX ops area, so it appears
that it will be awhile before we get a handle on next week.

	Doswell/Crisp

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   05      05
SEVERE                      02      02
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-