VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 24 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA:  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

cold, dry sfc rdg precludes any chc for svr convection thru
tuesday.  hi-based shwrs associated  with mid-lvl dist/cold
pool wl mov acrs cntrl ptns of the vortex area tdy, but ltl 
or no ltg is expected.

focus of attention is on wed's nw flow short wv.  vert
shear, mid-lvl lapse rates, and low-lvl thermal grad
look very promising; but mstr return is problematic attm.
there are some similarities btwn wed and apr 28 1992 (record
hailstorm in dfw area and numerous supercells with sfc dwpts 
barely reaching the low 60s).  New eta is a bit deeper, 
slower, and further s with the system, so it could bcm
interesting wed.  
 
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   10      10
SEVERE                      00      00
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL               na      na
SUPERCELL                   na      na

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                   na      na 
1ST SEVERE RPT              na      na 
1ST TORNADO                 na      na