VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 1 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

12Z UA DATA SHOWS 850 MB LOW OVER NW ARKANSAS WITH TROF
AXIS TRAILING SW INTO SOUTH TEXAS.  COLD ADVECTION NOTED
IN LOW LEVELS BRINGING STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
...PRECLUDING OPERATIONS FOR TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RECOVER TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.  APPEARS
MOST OF THE OPS AREA WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR SVR TSTMS
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE NWD AS FAR N AS WRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
IN THIS AREA STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN PLACE
OWING TO STG LOW LVL WARM ADVTN AND SOME COOLING ALF WITH
APPROACH OF MID LVL THERMAL TROF.  NEW ETA FCSTS 8.5 DEG/KM
FROM 700 TO 500 MB BY 03/00Z.  THIS AREA ALSO WILL HAVE
FVRBL SHEAR STRUCTURE JUST EAST OF LEE TROF.  PROBLEM AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE LACK OF LOW LVL MSTR AND THEREFORE
LACK OF CAPE WITH SLIM CHC OF TARGETABLE STORMS.

BETTER CHC OF OPERATIONS MAY BE WED AS LOW LVL MSTR WORKS
BACK INTO THE AREA.  LATEST ETA VALID 03/12Z HINTS AT PSBL
DRYLN SCENARIO OVER NW TX WED.

BAKER/KERR 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   05      60
SEVERE                      00      20
TORNADOES                   00      05
TARGETABLE STORM            00      10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL              N/A    260/35
SUPERCELL                  N/A    290/25

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  N/A     1700 
1ST SEVERE RPT             N/A     1800
1ST TORNADO                N/A     1900