VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 3 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  DEPARTURE AT NOON CDT
TARGET AREA:  NORTH TEXAS E OF A LINE FROM CDS-ABI
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  ARCHIVE II
   FOR KLBB...KFDR...KDYS...KFWS...KOUN

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER E TX AND MOVG E AWAY FROM THE AREA.
COOL AMS IN ITS WAKE COVERS MUCH OF NE TX AS OF 15Z. SFC
LOW IS ACRS THE SE TX PNHDL WITH TRAILING DRYLN TO BTWN
LBB-ABI. WRMFNT LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LOW PRES SE INTO CNTRL
TX. AMS IN THE WARM AND MOIST WEDGE E OF DRYLN ALREADY IS
BCMG UNSTBL WITH 15Z SFC BASED CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG INVOF
ABI. STLT LOOP SHOWS CI NOT LKLY TO BE A PROBLEM WITH GOOD
PTNL FOR INSOLATION ACRS ALL OF NRN TX. AMS W OF DRYLN IS
ALREADY SHOWING RAPID WARMING WITH 14Z-15Z TEMP RISES OF
10-15 DEG FROM W OF LBB SWD TO SE NM. UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE FVRBL FOR CNVTN WITH SHRTWV TROF IN ERN NM AND MID LVL
TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -16 RANGE. LATEST ETA INITIALIZED WELL
ON JET STREAM AND CONTS TO SHOW BAND OF STG FLOW ACRS THE
RED RIVER BY LATE WED AFTN. NGM NOW AGREEING WITH PAST
SVRL ETA RUNS IN MAINTAINING SFC LOW PRES S OF CDS BY
04/00Z AND BLV THIS WILL BE A GOOD FCST. MAIN CONCERN IS
HOW MUCH NWD TRANSPORT OF REASONABLY DEEP LOW LVL MSTR WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTN...AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL CNVGNC WHICH WILL
DVLP NEAR THE WRMFNT ALG THE RED RIVER AND ALG THE DRYLN 
JUST S OF THE SFC LOW. 12Z SNDGS AT MAF/AMA SUG WLY FLOW
SHOULD PICK UP IN THE DRY AIR THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD AID
IN PTNL DRYLN CNVGNC. PLANNED 18Z MOBILE SNDG SW OF SPS
SHOULD GIUE INSIGHT AS TO LOW LVL MSTR PTNL FOR LATE AFTN. 
SUSPECT INITIATION SOMEWHERE JUST SW OF SPS WITH CNVTN 
FAIRLY ISOLD INITIALLY. CONCUR WITH LATEST SELS DAY 1 OTLK 
ON PTNL FOR DVLPMNT EWD ALG E/W BNDRY INTO AN MCS AS CNVTN
MOVES INTO INCRG LLJ AND DEEPER MSTR.

LOOKING AHEAD...THU DOES NOT APPEAR TOO PROMISING AT THIS
TIME AS LOW LVL FLOW WEAKENS ACRS THE OPS AREA COURTESY
OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BENEATH MID LVL CONFLUENT FLOW.
WITH CONTD RISING HGTS INTO FRI WE SHOULD SEE A MAJOR CAP
ACRS MUCH OF THE OPS AREA FRI AS DEEP TROF DVLPS IN THE SW.
IF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE MRF IS A GOOD FCST...
FRI COULD BE ACTIVE BACK IN THE TX PNHDL OR NERN NM WHERE
CAP WOULD BE WEAKEST AND STG LOW LVL RETURN FLOW WOULD BE
IN PLACE. TIME WILL TELL.

BAKER/KERR

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z
(DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...

                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   95      20
SEVERE                      80      05
TORNADOES                   30      00
TARGETABLE STORM            60      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             250/30  -----
SUPERCELL                 270/20  -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1500   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1700   -----
1ST TORNADO                1800   -----