VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO OPERATIONS
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

STG TO A FEW SVR TSTMS DVLPD OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTRM SERN NM
IN AREA OF VERY STG ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN BY THE 09Z RUC
304K ANALYSIS. AS OF LATE FRI MRNG RAIN AND TSTMS CONTD
FROM THE SRN TX PNHDL SWD TO NEAR MAF. AMS ACRS THE VORTEX
AREA REMAINED COOL AND PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE W WILL SERVE
TO KEEP IT THAT WAY AS MARITIME AMS REMAINS SUPRESSED TO
THE S FOR ANOTHER DAY. JUST S OF THE OPS AREA TSTMS MAY BE
SVR THIS AFTN GIVEN HIGHER CAPE ALTHOUGH MESOCYCLONES NOT
TOO LIKELY.

AS UPR SYS TO THE W NUDGES CLOSER ON SAT THE PROSPECTS OF
A SFC BNDRY FROM THE TX/NM BORDER NWD INTO EXTRM SW KS
INCRS. BY LATE SAT AFTN AFTER 24 MORE HRS OF STG SE TO S
LOW LVL FLOW WOULD ANTICIPATE WARM AND MOIST AMS TO MOVE
AS FAR N AS SE CO AND SW KS...UNLESS TSTMS DVLP AGAIN TNGT
SOMEWHERE ACRS W TX. ETA 36 HR PROG OF 1500-2000 CAPE INTO
THE TX PNHDL LOOKS RSNBL. SINCE DRYLN WILL NOT LIKELY PLOW
EASTWARD ON SAT WILL NEED SFC FLOW TO BACK WELL INTO A SELY
DIR (I.E., 110 TO 140 WOULD BE NICE) TO INCRS LOW LVL 
CNVGNC AND TO INCRS DIR SHEAR.

ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED PROGS OFFER PTNL FOR DAY 3 AS SHRTWV
FCST TO KICK OUT ACRS OK SUN AFTN...LEADING TO PSBLY A VERY
ACTIVE AFTN OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA. HWVR...TODAY WAS A 
"FVRBL DAY 3" BACK ON WED. STILL WITH LARGE TROF TO THE W
ALWAYS SOME PTNL OF WHICH TO REMAIN AWARE.

BAKER/KERR

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   40      80
SEVERE                      20      50
TORNADOES                   05      20
TARGETABLE STORM            05      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   210/35
SUPERCELL                 -----   240/25

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   1700
1ST TORNADO               -----   1900