VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO OPERATIONS
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

MRNG STLT LOOP/UA DATA SHOWS UPR LOW SW OF OMA. SFC TROF
EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES INVOF THE UPR LOW SWD THRU CNTRL OK.
SNDGS FROM OUN/FWD SHOW VERY SHALLOW MSTR WHICH WILL MIX
OUT UNDER STG WLY GRAD ARND S SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WED LOOKS VERY UNFVRBL AS WELL WITH CONTD WLY GRAD AND
LACK OF CAPE. UPR FLOW FCST TO BECOME CONFLUENT WLY ACRS
THE RGN IN THE WAKE OF EXITING UPR LOW AND AHD OF NEXT
UPSTRM SYS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
AND KEEP SGFNT LOW LVL MSTR SUPRESSED ACRS S TX AND THE
GULF COAST AREA.

SAME PATTERN FOR THU AS NEW ETA RUN DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW LVL MSTR RETURN EXCEPT PERHAPS UP THE
RIO GRANDE INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE OPS AREA. LACK OF CAPE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THU...
AND IF MUCH CAPE DVLPS ACRS THE W...LACK OF LOW LVL CNVGNC
WILL LIKELY LIMIT DVLPMNT THERE. 

PRELIM LOOK AT EXTENDED SUGGESTS FRI OFFERS MORE OF A CHC
FOR OPS THAN DOES THU.

BAKER/KERR

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   00      00
SEVERE                      00      00
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   -----
SUPERCELL                 -----   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----