VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 11 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO OPERATIONS
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE CNTRL PLNS KEEPING AMS COOL AND
STABLE ACRS THE OPS AREA. LAST NIGHT SFC FNTL BNDRY SANK
INTO S TX LEADING TO FOCUSED ISENTROPIC LIFT UP THE RIO
GRANDE INTO W CNTRL TX. TSTMS FIRED IN THIS ZONE ARND 09Z
LEADING TO AN MCS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL TX. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP BNDRY ACRS S TX FOR SVRL MORE HRS DESPITE LARGE
SCALE TRENDS WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWD MOVEMENT. GIVEN THE
PRESENT LOCATION OF THE TX CNVTN IT APPEARS THAT LOW LVL
MSTR RETURN WILL CONT ACRS W TX THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE.

THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE KEY TO WX ON FRI. STG JET MAX
NOW MOVG OVER THE W COAST WITH 110 KT AS FAR E AS RNO.
THIS WILL DIG TROF INTO THE W NXT 24 HRS AND LEAD TO LEE
TROF DVLPMNT OVER WRN KS BY FRI MRNG AS PER LATEST ETA.
VERY FVRBL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACRS OK
AND KS BY FRI MRNG. LOCATION OF STG JET MAX ARGUES FOR
PLACING MOST EMPHASIS ACRS KS AND PERHAPS NRN OK. VERY
FVRBL WIND FIELDS FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION EXPCD TO BE IN
PLACE ACRS THE WRN HALF OF KS BY FRI AFTN. HAVE SOME
CONCERN OVER THE AMT OF CAPE WHICH WILL DVLP OVER THE
REGION OF BEST HODOGRAPHS. DEEP LOW LVL MSTR IS STILL
PUSHED ACRS THE SRN PART OF TX. ONGOING CNVTN IS SERVING
TO PREVENT SERIOUS INFLOW ATTM. FEEL WE ARE DEPENDENT ON
LLJ TNGT TO PULL MSTR BACK TO THE N IN TIME TO BE IN PLACE
BY FRI AFTN ACRS NRN OK AND THE WRN HALF OF KS. IF THIS
HAPPENS EVERYTHING MAY COME TOGETHER FOR SGFNT SUPERCELLS
ALG THE DRYLN AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. HWVR...AS NOTED...
LOW LVL AMS IS STILL RATHER COOL ATTM ACRS OK AS SFC HIGH
STILL IS CLOSE TO THE AREA. AS LLJ INCRS TNGT THE LOW LVL
WAA WILL ALSO INCRS. DEPENDING ON THE LOW LVL AMS TO THE
N THERE IS THE RISK THAT STG ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT
SOMEWHERE FROM NRN TX TO SRN KS AND THE ATTENDANT RISK OF
AN E/W LINE OF LATE NIGHT CNVTN AND PSBL MCS EARLY FRI
MRNG...TO THE S OF THE GOOD HODOGRAPHS OVER NRN OK AND
WRN KS.

HAVING RAISED ALL THE PSBL NEGATIVES (AT LEAST ONE OF
WHICH TENDS TO HAPPEN WHEN THE WIND FIELDS LOOK SO GOOD)
THERE SEEMS TO BE A DECENT PROSPECT FOR TARGETABLE STMS
FRI AFTN/EVE ALONG THE DRYLN FROM NWRN KS SWD TO EXTRM
WRN OK (AND PSBLY THE ERN TX PNHDL). SGFNT PUSH TO THE
DRYLN IS PSBL FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO WRN OK
GIVEN FAST H7 FLOW ALF AND DVLPG SFC CYCLONE OVER WRN KS.

BAKER/KERR 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   40     100
SEVERE                      10      80
TORNADOES                   05      60
TARGETABLE STORM            05      60

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   220/45
SUPERCELL                 -----   240/35

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----    1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----    1600
1ST TORNADO               -----    1630