VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 14 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  NO VORTEX OPS
TARGET AREA: NONE 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A strong system digging in off the west coast is associated
with intense ridging over the plains, very clearly depicted
in the WV imagery and H500 height changes at 12Z.  A very 
unstable low-level airmass is separated from a strong south-
ward push of cold air along the high plains by an intense 
front.  This front is depicted with a nice rope cloud in the
visible satellite imagery this morning and seems to be 
moving slowly in eastern OK and continues to push southward
in southwestern OK and western TX.  The surface air has high
CAPEs, perhaps as high as 6000 J kg-1, but the ridging has
reduced upper flow such that supercells are not very likely
today.  There is a strong cap but it is certainly breakable
with the heating today combined with lift from the front, so
thunderstorms should develop late in the day and have a good
chance of being severe.  Although chances of a supercell are
low, there is a possiblity of "landspout" type events if the
front remains quasistationary and winds become nearly paral-
lel to the front on both sides of the boundary.

Tomorrow looks promising for west TX as the upper flow is
progged to become 70 kts or so by 00Z and the high CAPE air
at low levels is progged to spread northwestward into the TX
panhandle by the afternoon ... this according to the 12Z ETA
run.  The next day could also be a show in the western part
of the VORTEX ops area, with some chances through Thursday,
according to last night's MRF, depending on timing of the
major short wave trough.

	Doswell/Crisp

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   80      60
SEVERE                      60      50
TORNADOES                   20      40
TARGETABLE STORM            30      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             270/12  260/25
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   290/12

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1745    1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1815    1645
1ST TORNADO               1830    1715