VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: SOUTHWEST KANSAS 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: SNDG AMA,DDC,OUN
TOP,FSI. ARCH II: GLD,DDC,END,ICT,AMA,OUN 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Rich lo-lvl mstr...with dwpts in the mid to upr 60s...is in
place fm the srn hi plns nnewd to vcnty of retreating 
outflow bndry ovr cntrl KS.  wk area of sfc lo pres now ovr
xtrm ern co/wrn ks xpcd to strengthen and dvlp swd ltr tda
and tngt in response to apch of stg upr trof now ovr the
desert sw.  mid- and  upr-lvl wnd field ovr VORTEX rgn alrdy
stgr than yda at this time...and wl lkly incrs thru tngt.
eta and ruc fcst 250mb spds in excess of 75kts by 21z tda
fm nw tx into the wrn half of ks appear reasonable given
mrng raob data.  the hi-lvl flow shud also rmn rather
diffluent...with a well-defined sub-trop jet axis ovrs sw
TX.  

raobs fm  maf...ama and ddc all show presence of cap which
wl inhibit dvlpmt of sfc-based cnvtn until ltr this aftn
...when temps have reached the upr 80s.  aftn htg ovr w tx
wl lkly be diminished by lrg area of sub-trop cirrus apchg 
the rgn ahd of sw u.s. trof.  the same clds wl also lmt htg 
ery this aftn in sw ks...but the clds there are thinner 
...and the back edge of the band shud pass beyond the rgn
fm w to e in the nxt 2-4 hrs. 

capes alrdy aoa 2500j/kg s of bndry in KS...and shud rise 
to at least 3500j/kg with contd htg ltr tda.  tstms xpcd to
initiate alg and s of bndry and quickly become svr given hi
capes and stg directional shear . new model guidance
consistent with previous runs in fcstg some backing of lo-
lvl flow ovr the rgn this aftn/ery tngt.  this wud enhance
supercell/tornadic potential...esply given incrg upr flow.

farther s...contd lo-lvl sely flow and presence of rich
mtsr shud result in isold supercell dvlpmt lt this aftn and
tngt ovr the srn hi plns of w tx/xtrm ern nm.

for tomorrow...kinematic support for svr tstms wl incrs ovr
the srn half of the plns with incrg wnd field assocd with
apchg upr trof.  with wdsprd tropical mstr alrdy in place
and capping inversion lkly to wkn fm n to s acrs rgn durg
the day...a sqln cud be in progress by ery in the day alg
leading edge of cdfnt/dryln fm wrn ok swd into nw tx.  if 
cap wkns rapidly and sqln dvlps swd durg the day...the 
greatest rsk of tornadic stms wud be ovr parts of se ok and 
n cntrl/ne tx.    
             
Corfidi/Thompson/Howerton

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   99      99
SEVERE                      80      80
TORNADOES                   60      60
TARGETABLE STORM            60      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23030   22535
SUPERCELL                 26020   24030

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1700    1300 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1730    1400
1ST TORNADO                1800    1500