VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 17 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA: CNTRL/S CNTRL OK INTO E CNTRL OK AND N CNTRL TX  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: SNDGS FM OUN/FWD
/MAF.  ARCHIVE II FM KTLX/KINX/KFWS


DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

STG NM UPR LO...WITH ASSOCD 90KT SWLY SPD MAX OVR SW TX...
XPCD TO MOVE ENE TO NR JLN BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ASSOCD SFC LO NOW DVLPG OVR W CNTRL OK SHUD TRACK ENE
ALG INTENSFYING STNRY FNT INTO S CNTRL MO.

MRNG RAOB DATA AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOW CONTG PRESENCE OF
WARM SECTOR CAP ALG AND E OF A LN FM E OF CSM TO NR ABI.
BACK EDGE OF CAP APPEARS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...AND 20-25KT
EWD MOVMT SHUD CONT THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AS NM SYS CONTS
TO APCH FM THE WSW.  

VSBL DATA STLT IMAGERY AND LATEST SFC ANALYSES SHOW WARM
SECTOR STRATUS CONTG TO DVLP AHD OF DRYLN IN SW OK...
SUGGESTING THAT MSTR IN THIS RGN IS DEEP ENUF TO RESIST
BEING MIXED OUT BY DAYTIME HTG...DESPITE PASSAGE OF MID-LVL
DRY PUNCH RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED CNVCTN NOW OVR ERN OK.
AT THE SAME TIME...CONTG PRES FALLS OVR CNTRL OK...
EVEN AT DIURNAL RISE TIME (15Z)...SUGGEST THAT MODEL FCST OF
SFC LO MVMT IS ON TRACK AND THAT LO-LVL FLOW WL RMN BACKED
TO ARND 180 DEGS OVR CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX THRU THE MOST OF
THE DAY. 
           
BACKED LO-LVL FLOW AHD OF LO...COUPLED WITH CONTG PRESENCE
OF VRY FVRBL DEEP-LYR SHEAR PROFILES (SPDS IN EXCESS OF
60KTS AT 500MB)...DIFFLUENT HI-LVL FLOW AND WARM SECTOR
CAPES ALRDY IN THE 2500-3000J/KG RANGE SUGGEST A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STMS...WITH THE PSBLTY OF A FEW
STG TORNADOES.

SFC WND SPDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS ATTM (16Z) ACRS W TX ALSO
SUGGEST THAT LRG SCALE SYS IS INDEED CONTG EWD AND THAT CAP
WL BE ELIMINATED SWD INTO N CNTRL TX LTR IN THE DAY.
FARTHER E...ACTVTY IN FAR ERN OK/NE TX MAY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS OR SQLN LTR TNGT AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DIMINISHES BUT
DEEP/STG MSTR INFLOW CONTS.  THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES WL...
HWVR...CONT AS SPD SHEAR WL RMN QUITE STG.      
   

CORFIDI/THOMPSON/HOWERTON


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     20
SEVERE                      100     10
TORNADOES                    90     01
TARGETABLE STORM             80     01

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             22040   N/A
SUPERCELL                 25030   N/A

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1330   N/A 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1400   N/A
1ST TORNADO                1415   N/A