VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT 18 MAY 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: NONE 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

KS/MO SHRTWV TROF XPCD TO CONT EWD AND WKN THIS PD AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACRS THE CNTRL U.S.  ASSOCD CDFNT HAS
ALRDY CLEARED MOST OF THE OPS AREA AND WL HAVE MOVED BEYOND 
SE CORNER OF RGN BY LTR THIS AFTN.  A FEW...PSBLY ELEVATED
...TSTMS MAY DVLP INVOF FNT WITH CONTD HTG LTR TDA.  BUT 
COMBINATION OF WKNG UPR FLOW AND ONLY MODEST LO-LVL CNVGNC
(THANKS TO DECIDED WLY COMPONENT OF 850MB FLOW) XPCD TO
PRECLUDE SUPERCELL DVLPMT.

DRY...ANTICYCLONIC LO-LVL FLOW XPCD TO KEEP CNVTN AT A 
MINIMUM OVR MOST OF THE OPS AREA ON FRIDAY.  HWVR...A FEW 
TSTMS MAY AFFECT WRN PTNS OF KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS LT IN
THE DAY AS WLY MID-LVL FLOW ALLOWS DIURNAL CNVTN DVLPG IN
AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVR THE CNTRL RCKYS TO DRIFT EWD.

ATTM...APPEARS THAT THE NXT CHANCE FOR TARGETABLE STMS IN 
THE OPS AREA IS LT SATURDAY/ERY SUNDAY FM W TX NWD INTO SE
CO/SW KS.  LO-LAT E PAC SHRTWV TROF NOW NR 130W XPCD TO
CONT EWD TO VCNTY SE AZ BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS FCST BY THE
ETA.  THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION FM LATEST
STLT IMAGERY.  SFC FNT NOW MOVG SEWD ACRS TX XPCD TO STALL
OVR XTRM SRN PTNS OF THE STATE DURG THE NXT 24 HRS.  MOIST
AMS S OF FNT SHUD BEGIN MOVG NWWD THRU THE LWR RIO GRANDE
VLY SATURDAY MRNG AS LO-LVL FLOW BACKS IS RESPONSE TO
DVLPMT OF HI PLNS LEE TROF.  ATTM APPEARS THAT A NARROW 
AXIS OF AT LEAST MODEST LO-LVL MSTR WL HAVE SPRD AS FAR N
AS THE TX PNHDL BY LT IN THE DAY.  APCH OF PAC TROF XPCD TO
STRENGTHEN UPR LVL FLOW/LRG SCALE DESTABILIZATION OVR RGN
...WITH CONDITIONS PSBLY BECOMING FVRBL FOR ISOLD
SUPERCELLS LT IN THE DAY.     

CORFIDI/THOMPSON


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   20      20
SEVERE                      10      10
TORNADOES                   01      01
TARGETABLE STORM            01      01

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             N/A     N/A
SUPERCELL                 N/A     N/A

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 N/A     N/A 
1ST SEVERE RPT            N/A     N/A
1ST TORNADO               N/A     N/A