VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1100 AM CDT MAY 21 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  No VORTEX ops
TARGET AREA:  none  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  none, but all 
VORTEX sites should be alerted for special soundings tomor-
row  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today seems to be a day in transition, with basically north-
westerly flow expected to shift to southwesterly tomorrow.
This means shortwave ridging today, with weakening flow at
upper levels.  In spite of a slow increase in low-level 
moisture, therefore, the situation is less favorable than it
was yesterday in terms of the supercell potential.  The con-
vection left over from the nocturnal activity seems to have
backed the low-level flow across much of OK and western TX,
and residual strong winds aloft make it just barely possible
that an isolated storm could get the right combination of
ingredients, but it would be a long way to travel for a long
shot.

Tomorrow looks quite interesting.  The Gulf is opening up 
this morning and the progs show CAPEs in excess of 3000 J 
kg-1 developing in the eastern TX panhandle, western OK, and
southwestern KS.  The wind profile should improve during the
day so that by late afternoon the sharpening dryline in the
TX panhandle could be the focus for some isolated supercell
storms.  The "triple point" could also be favorable, but it
is not yet clear where the features are going to be by to-
morrow morning ... as usual, any convection developing to-
night and continuing into the morning will play a role in
defining the details.  The wind profile is perhaps the big-
gest issue in doubt at the moment ... and, as always, the
topic of if, when, and where storms will get started.

Looking at the MRF, it still appears that we may have a run
of 2-4 days of significant convection somewhere in the VOR-
TEX ops area.

	Doswell/Janish

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   80      80
SEVERE                      60      70
TORNADOES                   10      30
TARGETABLE STORM            20      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             270/15  270/18
SUPERCELL                 300/08  310/10

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1600    1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1700    1645
1ST TORNADO               1745    1715