VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT 23 MAY 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: W TX  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

SOUTHWEST FLOW WL PREVAIL OVR THE SRN PLNS AS SRN GRT BASIN
UPR TROF CONTS E TWD RGN.  SFC CDFNT ASSOCD WITH NRN BRANCH
SHRTWV NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY XPCD TO CONT SURGING S ACRS
SRN PTNS OF THE HI PLNS...PER PRES RISES AND LO-LVL CD ADVN
APPARENT IN LATEST SFC DATA OVR KS/ERN CO.

THE MRNG RAOBS INDICATE SUF INSTBLTY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DVLPMT AHD OF FNT OVR MUCH OF TX AND OK LTR TDA...WITH CAPES
RANGING FM ARND 2000J/KG OVR NE OK TO 3500J/KG OVR SW TX.
BUT THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CONTD PRESENCE OF A FORMIDABLE
CAP WHICH APPEARS STGST OVR CNTRL AND ERN PTNS OF TX/OK.
ALSO...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HI-LVL CLOUDINESS INCRG OVR
W TX/ERN NM AHD OF SHRTWV TROF ASSOCD WITH GRT BASIN TROF.

ALTHOUGH UPR AIR ANALYSES AND PROGS SHOW THE CONTD PRESENCE
OF UPR DIFFLUENCE AND INCRG UPR FLOW FVRBL FOR SUPERCELL
DVLPMT...COMBINATION OF CAP...CLOUDINESS AND CONTD SWD PUSH
OF COLD FRONTAL WEDGE WL CONT TO CUT INTO THE REMAINING  
TERRITORY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELL DVLPMT.

ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RSK FOR TARGETABLE STMS
WL BE LTR THIS AFTN THRU ERY TNGT OVR W CNTRL AND SW TX...
WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S SHUD BE SUF TO BREAK CAP.
MORE ISOLD STMS PSBL FARTHER NE INTO S CNTRL OK...BUT 
REDUCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS A GREATER 
PSBLTY OF HP- OR MCS-TYPE DVLPMT.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LTL CHG ON WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF
MDT TO STG WND FIELD AND HI CAPES SUGGEST PARTS OF CNTRL 
AND NRN TX AS BEING THE MOST FVRBL PTN OF VORTEX AREA FOR 
TARGETABLE STM DVLPMT.

CORFIDI/THOMPSON


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      98
SEVERE                      95      70
TORNADOES                   70      40
TARGETABLE STORM            60      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             21022   21025
SUPERCELL                 25017   25018

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1630    1430 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1645    1500
1ST TORNADO               1715    1530