VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT WEDNESDAY 24 MAY 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: VCNTY SJT/MAF/BGS/SEP   
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

MEAN UPR TROF WL RMN IN THE W THIS PD...WITH DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENCE PATTERN NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY XPCD TO
GRADUALLY WKN.  WK SHRTWV OVR W TX THIS MRNG SHUD EJECT 
NE ACRS ERN OK WHILE UPSTREAM TROF DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM.

SFC FNT NOW IN PLACE FM SE OK TO W CNTRL TX XPCD TO BECOME
NRLY STNRY LTR TDA FM S OF MAF TO NR ADM AS SFC RDGING
FINALLY DIMINISHES OVR THE CNTRL PLNS.  AHD OF FNT...SVRL
CNVTV OUTFLOW BNDRYS/WK TROFS EXIST IN WRM SECTOR ACRS
CNTRL/ERN TX. MOST OF THESE APPEAR TO BE WKNG RAPIDLY AND
SHUD NOT PLAY A SGFNT ROLE IN ORGANIZING TDA'S CNVTV
DVLPMTS.  ONE BNDRY WHICH MAY...HWVR...PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
TO BE A FACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE NOW EXTENDS RUFLY E/W FM SE OK
TO NR MWL.  WRM SECTOR AMS SHUD RECOVERY FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHD
OF FNT/BNDRY AS 15KT LO-LVL SSE FLOW IS ALRDY DVLPG ACRS
CNTRL/SRN TX...AND STLT SHOWS FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES IN WAKE OF
E TX OVRNGT CNVTV DEBRIS.

THE MRNG RAOBS SHOW CAP OF 300J/KG OVR W TX (MAF) INCRG TO
ARND 800J/KG AT FWD.  SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SHUD
OVERCOME THE CAP AT MAF...WHILE READINGS IN THE UPR 80S OR
LO 90S APPEAR NECESSARY AT FTW.  THE 12Z ETA MODEL FCSTS
AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2500J/KG LTR TDA IN THE SJT AREA...WITH
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG NR FTW.  THESE VALUES 
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT OBS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.

AFTN HTG AND CNVGNC INVOF OF SFC FNT AND N TX OUTFLOW BNDRY
XPCD TO BE SUF TO SUPPORT AFTN/EVE TSTMS OVR PARTS OF SW/
W CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX.  FCST WND PROFILES SHOW CONTD WK
(APPROX 20KTS) 700MB FLOW OVR MOST OF TX THIS EVE...BUT SUF
VERT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STMS...ESPLY OVR W CNTRL TX
(ABI TO SJT AREA).  POTENTIAL WUD BE INCRD IF E/W OUTFLOW 
BNDRY ALLOWS STMS TO PROPAGATE MORE E THAN NEWD. HP-TYPE
SUPERCELLS WITH PSBL SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES SHUD BE THE MAIN
THREAT. 

CONTD WKNG OF UPR MS VLY UPR CONFLUENCE ZONE AND APCH OF
STGR SRN BRANCH SHRTWV FM AZ/NM SHUD ALLOW AMS TO RECOVER
SLOWLY NWD ON THURSDAY OVR FAR WRN TX AND PERHAPS SRN PTNS
THE TX PNHDL.  SHEAR PROFILES SHUD BE SUF FOR SUPERCELL STMS
BY LT IN THE DAY...ESPLY IF UPSLOPE COMPONENTS PERSIST INVOF
AREAS EXPERIENCING SGFNT AFTN/EVE DSTBLZTN. 
 
CORFIDI/THOMPSON

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100     100
SEVERE                      80      80
TORNADOES                   20      30
TARGETABLE STORM            40      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             21520   21522
SUPERCELL                 27015   26015

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1400    1400 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1445    1430
1ST TORNADO               1515    1500