VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT THU 25 MAY 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA:  NONE (DAY 1), MAF-GCK (DAY 2) 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

SHALLOW CD AMS HAS INVADED MUCH OF THE SRN PLNS AND
NOW COVERS ALL BUT THE XTRM SE PTN OF VORTEX AREA.  BELIEVE
THAT SWD SURGE IS JUST ABOUT OVER NOW SINCE (1) LWR OH SFC
WV IS WKNG AND (2) SHRTWV ASSOCD WITH GREAT BASIN UPR TROF
HAS BEGUN TO INDUCE SFC PRES FALLS OVR THE CNTRL HI PLNS.

WHILE THE MODELS FCST RAPID RECOVERY OF LO-LVL AMS ACRS N TX
AND OK DURG THE NXT 36HRS...WRM ADVTN PCPN ALG AND N OF E/W
850MB FNT INVOF THE RED RVR XPCD TO MAINTAIN/REINFORCE BNDRY
DESPITE LRG-SCALE ATTEMPTS TO LIFT IT BODILY NWD.  IN
ADDITION...ISALLOBARIC BACKING OF LO-LVL FLOW OVR THE CNTRL
PLNS LTR TDA AND TNGT WL ACT TO MAINTAIN ADVCTN OF LO
THETA-E AIR ACRS MOST OF OK AND KS AT THE SFC.  COLD AMS
HAS PUSHED AS FAR SW AS THE ERN NM FOOTHILLS AND WL BE 
SLOW TO BE DISLODGED AS AXIS OF DEEPEST COLD AIR LIES 
NOT FAR TO THE E. 

THE 12Z ETA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN IN FCSTG
SGFNT MID-LVL CD ADVTN OVR ERN CO/WRN KS DURG THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS A SPD MAX ASSOCD WITH GRT BASIN UPR TROF EJECTS
NEWD ACRS RGN.  AS A RESULT...850 TO 500MB "DELTA TEES" ON
THE ORDER OF 30-34C ARE FCST ACRS THE RGN.  WHILE MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES MAY INDEED STEEPEN TO A SUF DEGREE TO SUPPORT
STG CNVTV STMS...THE MAIN PROBLEM LMTG DVLPMT IN THIS RGN
WL BE REALIZING SUF SFC HTG/CNVGNC GIVEN CONTG PRESENCE OF
SHALLOW COLD AMS.  

FARTHER S...LO-LVL AMS RECOVERY SHUD BE SMWHT GREATER ACRS
FAR WRN TX AND ERN NM...BUT ASSOCD MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
UPR-LVL WND FIELDS NOT LKLY TO BE AS FVRBL FOR SUPERCELL
DVLPMT AS IN CO/KS.         

BECAUSE VRY MOIST AMS IS IN PLACE AT THE SFC ATTM OVR S
TX...AND RMNS PRESENT NOT FAR ABV THE GRND IN CNTRL TX...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE PSBLTY THAT SUF AMS RECOVERY WL OCCUR
TO SUPPORT STG TSTMS LTR TMRW OVR THE ERN NM AND FAR WRN
TX HI PLNS.  WHETHER RGN OF SFC-BASED INSTBLTY WL EVER
COINCIDE WITH RGN OF STGST KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL
DVLPMT DURG THE DAYTIME HRS OVR THE VORTEX AREA RMNS TO BE
SEEN. 

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLD SVR SFC-BASED TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/
ERY TNGT ALG AND S OF QSTNRY FNT IN NE TX/SE OK.  LO- TO 
MID-LVL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TO BE TOO WK TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONES.  VERT SHEAR IS STGR OVR CNTRL/NW TX
AND THE WRN HALF OF OK.  A FEW ELEVATED STMS CUD PRODUCE LRG
HAIL IN THESE AREAS LTR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT.

CORFIDI/THOMPSON


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100     100
SEVERE                      40      70
TORNADOES                   10      40
TARGETABLE STORM            10      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             22030   22030
SUPERCELL                 26020   25022

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1400     1400 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1445     1430
1ST TORNADO               1530     1500