VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT FRIDAY 26 MAY 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO.
TARGET AREA: W CTNRL TX/E CNTRL AND SE CNTRL NM 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

MAIN 4 CORNERS AREA UPR TROF XPCD TO CONT EWD TO ERN CO/NM
BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVR SE NM LIFTS
NE ACRS NRN TX.  E/W SFC WRM FNT NOW EXTENDING FM S OF TCC
TO NR MLC XPCD TO CONT MOVG NNWWD AT 10-15KTS AS PRESSURES 
CONT TO FALL OVR THE CNTRL HI PLNS.  FARTHER N...WK SFC
TROF PRESENT ACRS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE TX PNHDL AND NW
OK APPEARS TO MARK THE SRN EDGE OF DEEPER COLD AIR.  THIS
COLD DOME MAY RETREAT MORE SLOWLY THAN SHALLOWER LYR TO
THE S.  THUS...ADVANCING WRM FNT WL LKLY MERGE WITH TROF 
LTR TDA SOMEWHERE NR AMA...FORMING A NRN LMT TO GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TARGETABLE STMS.

AMS S OF WRM FNT IS VRY MOIST...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID
60S NOW PRESENT AS FAR W AS MAF.  STLT IMAGERY SHOWS BKN
CLDNS ACRS W TX/ERN NM S OF THE BNDRY...WITH SCTD ELEVATED
CNVTN (BASED AT 700MB PER 12Z ELP SOUNDING) MOVG ACRS RGN.
THIS ACTVTY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING
NE AHD OF 4 CORNERS TROF.

WHILE THE MODELS FCST INCRGLY FVRBL VERT SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELL DVLPMT LTR TDA AND TNGT ACRS W TX/ERN NM (ESPLY 
IF WRM FNT RMNS DISTINCT)...ABSENCE OF A CAP AND CNVTN NOW
OCCURRING OVR SW TX/SE NM BOTH MAKE TDA'S FCST FOR
TARGETABLE STMS FAR FROM STRAIGHT FORWARD.
       
GIVEN THE FACT THAT HI DWPTS ARE ALDY IN PLACE...VERT 
SHEAR WL BE INCRG DURG THE DAY...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH UPR
DIFFLUENCE AND DVGNC WL BE STG INVOF WRM FNT (PER
EXTRAPOLATION FM MRNG 250MB ANALYSIS AND A GLANCE AT 12HR
ETA PROG)...BELIEVE THAT SUPERCELL STMS ARE A GOOD BET LTR
TDA/TNGT ACRS PARTS OF W TX/XTRM ERN NM.  STM-RELATIVE
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WITH INCRG UPR FLOW (75KTS AT 250MB BY
00Z) SUGGEST THE PSBLTY OF TORNADOES...ESPLY WITH STMS
FORCED TO MOVE MORE E THAN NE INVOF WRM FNT.

THE THREAT FOR SVR STMS SHUD SHIFT E AND NE INTO THE PLNS
ON SATURDAY AS MAIN UPR TROF CONTS NEWD.  TMRW'S CNVTV
DVLPMTS WL BE COMPLICATED BY LKLY PRESENCE OF ONGOING ACTVTY
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY.  THE NEW (12Z) ETA FCST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FM EARLIER GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A MIXED
SOLN OF SORTS.  WHILE THE STGST LRG-SCALE FORCING FOR SVR
CNVTN APPEARS TO EXIT ERN PTNS OF THE VORTEX AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...THERE CONTS TO BE STG LO- AND 
(TO A LESSER EXTENT) MID-LVL SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT
OVR PARTS OF CNTRL OK AND KS.  IN ADDITION...PATTERN WUD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SGFNT LT DAY STMS IN N TX...OR LO-TOPPED
ACTVTY IN ERN NEB/SW IA.

CORFIDI/THOMPSON
                 
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100     100
SEVERE                      90      70
TORNADOES                   50      30
TARGETABLE STORM            60      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             21030   23035
SUPERCELL                 24022   27026

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1330   1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1415   1630
1ST TORNADO               1445   1700