VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 29 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE. NWS UPR
AIR SITES ON STANDBY FOR TUES 3/30.

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: SITN IS NOT CLEAR CUT, BUT WHAT
FVBL PARAMETERS THERE ARE AGN FOCUS OVR SW TX. RUC PROGS 
INDC FVBL SHEAR FCST OVR MUCH OF W TX BY 00Z WTH HELICITIES
OVR 200, BUT INTRUSION OF COOL AIR AND ONGOING WDSPRD 
CONVCTN HV TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON INSTBY. BEST INSTBY WL RMN S
OF SFC FNT/OUTFLOW BNDRY CRNTLY S OF MAF, WHERE CAPES ARE 
PROGGED IN 2500-3000 RANGE. THIS YIELDS AN EHI OF ARND 4
OVR SW TX, ACRGD TO RUC. THUS EXPC ANOTR DAY OF SUPERCELL
POTL ARND THE MAF AREA THIS AFTN, OR PSBLY A LTL FRTHR W OR
SW WHERE MAX MSTR CONVGC IS PROGGED, BUT HIEST POTL IS LKLY
TO BE SW OF VORTEX AREA. 

00Z MDLS DIVERGE ON DAY 2 SCENARIO. PRIND DRYLN WL SHARPEN
OVR ERN NM AND SWRN TX, AND VEERING LL FLOW FM ELY TO MORE 
SLY WL ALLOW FOR NWD TRANSPORT OF INSTBY UP INTO TX/NM BRDR 
AREA. NEG FACTOR ATTM IS LACK OF STG LL SHEAR DUE TO FCST WK 
LL WIND FIELDS. HOWVR, LAST NGTS ETA UNDERFCST STRENGTH AND
BACKING OF 850MB FLOW THIS MRNG INVOF MAF, AND THUS MAY BE
DOING SO AGN ON THIS MRNG'S OUTPUT VALID TUE EVE. WITH BTR
LL WINDS THAN CRNTLY FCST, TOR POTL WUD INCR FRTHR ON TUE AND 
CUD SPRD N INTO PTNS W CNTRL TX TWD LBB. MUCH OF NRN AND ERN 
PARTS OF VORTEX AREA WL RMN CHOKED BY CD AIR INTRUSION.  
BRANICK/VESCIO 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     100
SEVERE                       70      70
TORNADOES                     5      10
TARGETABLE STORM              5      20

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   26025
SUPERCELL                 -----   30017

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   1500L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   1545L
1ST TORNADO               -----   1700L