VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 30 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: MDLS FCSTG DESTABILIZATION OVR HI
PLAINS OF NM AND W TX WTH LIS OF -4 TO -7 BY 00Z AS LL FLOW 
IS FCST TO VEER TO MORE SELY. HOWVR, CD AIR APRS MORE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVR AREA THAN PROGGED BY PREV MDL RUNS, WITH FNTL 
ZN SHOVED S TO BIG BEND. CLD CVR AND MRNG CONVCTN NOT 
HELPING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS EITHER. MRNG SNDGS OVR W
TX NEED CNSDRBL WORK BFR THEY CAN SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, AND 
DONT THINK IT WL HAPPEN. WITH LL WNDS AND SHEAR RMNG FAIRLY 
WK, AND ONLY MDT INSTBY EXPCD, FEEL THAT RISK OF TORNADOES 
IS SLGT. BEST AREA APRS TO BE NR DRYLN FCST TO SET UP OVR 
EXTRM ERN NM OR PERHAPS EXTRM W TX - W OF VORTEX AREA.

AS USUAL, DAY 2 LOOKS BETTER. SFC LOW EXPCD TO DVLP NRN TX
WTH WMFNT EWD ALG RED RVR AND EWD-MOVG DRYLN SWD TO NR BIG 
BEND. MDLS AGN PROGGING AMPLE INSTBY NR SFC LOW AND TPL PT
OVR NRN TX AND EXTRM SRN OK WITH LIS -7 TO -10. SHEAR ALSO
FCST TO IMPV, ESPLY BY NGM WHICH KEEPS BL FLOW BACKED TO 
MORE SSELY. THIS ALSO OPENS GULF MORE, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO
THE MORE SWLY LL FLOW PROGGED BY ETA. FCST SNDGS INDC HIEST
POTL SW OF DFW WHERE CAPES ARE FCST ARND 2000-3000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS DECENT. BETTER SHEAR FRTHR N TWD RED RVR, BUT AMS 
THERE FCST TO BE MORE STBL. STGST WNDS ALF EXPCD ARND BASE
OF TROF MOVG THRU CNTRL/SRN PLAINS, MNLY FM RED RVR AREA 
SWD. WITH UPR JET FCST TO VEER TO WNWLY, MEAN WIND WUD 
SUPPORT MORE ESEWD MOVMT OF ANY RGT-MOVERS. WK CAP INDCS
A POTLY EARLY SHOW, WTH INIT DVLPMT BY EARLY AFTN. AS ALWAYS,
EFFECTS OF CONVCTN THIS AFTN AND TNGT CUD THROW A MONKEY
WRENCH INTO THE WHOLE WORKS ON WED. BRANICK/VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100     100
SEVERE                      60      60
TORNADOES                   10      40
TARGETABLE STORM            10      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             24024   26028
SUPERCELL                 28017   30021

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1400    1300 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1445    1345
1ST TORNADO                1600    1445