VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 01 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:  SHRTWV TROF EXTNDG FM OK-KS BDR
SWD INTO ERN TX IS MOVG AWAY FROM VORTEX AREA WITH RIDGING TAKING
PLACE OVR HIGH PLAINS.  SFC PATTERN IS RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL
WEAK BDRYS.  WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WKR THAN YDA AND CAPES
NOT LKLY TO BE AS STG.  PRIMARY SFC BDRY IN VORTEX AREA EXTNDS
FM ERN OK SWWD TO N OF MWL TO S OF INK.  WK SLY LO LVL FLOW IS 
IMPINGING ON THIS BDRY IN THE INK/MAF AREA.  TSTMS LKLY TO
DVLP NR BDRY THIS AFTN SINCE CAP IS NOT FCST TO BE VRY STG.  
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTBY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS 
...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHC OF SUPERCELL DVLPMT.  CELLS
THAT DO DVLP SHUD MOV SEWD TO SSEWD ABT 15 TO 20 KT.

...JOHNS

TOR POTENTIAL MAY INCR A BIT ON FRI AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPR SHRTWVS
REACHES NM BY 00Z SAT. AS SYS APROACHES...DRYLN IS XPCD TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED 
OVR ERN NM/SE CO. LOW LVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO SELY AND STRENGTHEN
ACRS W/NW TX AND EXTRM ERN NM FRI AFTN. ASSOCD MOISTURE ADVECTION 
WILL RESULT IN SFC DWPNTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS FAR N AS THE TX PNHDL LATE FRI
AFTN. FCST SNDGS ARND LBB INDICATE CAPES NR 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP BY 
00Z SAT. XPC TSTMS TO INITIATE ALG DRYLN IN ERN NM DURG THE AFTN FRI AND SLOLY 
MOVE/PROPAGATE INTO EXTRM WRN TX DURG THE EVE. SUFF VERT SHEAR IS PROGD FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES. 

...VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   98      98
SEVERE                      70      70
TORNADOES                   20      30
TARGETABLE STORM            30      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             300/20   240/25
SUPERCELL                 330/15   270/20

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1330     1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1530     1730
1ST TORNADO               1700     1900