VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUN 7 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:  VRY UNSTBL AMS IS OFFSET BY STG
CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR.  BEST AREA TDA APRS TO BE ERN/SERN KS
WHERE CDFNT INTRSECTS E-W OUTFLOW BNDRY.  MAX CAPE FCST OVR
5000 J/KG IN SERN KS, BUT WM MID LVL TEMPS AND RESULTANT CAP
EXPCD TO LIMIT POTL FOR TSTM DVLPMT.  FRTHR W, LL WNDS BHD FNT WL
NEED TO VEER IN A HURRY OVR WRN KS.  AMS IN THIS AREA NOT
EXPCD TO BE AS UNSTBL AS FRTHR E AND SE.  W TX LKLY TO RMN
CAPPED.

WND FIELDS LOOKING A LTL BETTER ON DAY2 AS LLJ IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN AND UPR WINDS INCR AS WRN US UPR LOW DRIFTS CLOSER.
HOWVR, EWD DRIFT WL BE SLOW UNTIL PAC KICKER APCHS LATER IN 
WK.  ETA FCSTS A DECR IN INSTBY AND WKNG OF CAP AS MID-LVL
TEMPS COOL, BUT BELIVE MDL IS IN ERROR PREDICTING BOTH THE
MID-LVL COOLING AND THE DECR IN INSTBY.  EXPC DEWPTS TO RMN IN
70S IN WM SECTOR AND 700 TEMPS TO RMN IN 12-14 DEG RANGE, THUS
MAINTAINING MDTLY STG CAP AND HI CAPES OVR WM SECTOR.  DVLPMTS
TNGT LKLY TO HV A MAJOR IMPACT, AS MCC IS EXPCD TO FRM N OF 
SFC FNT, MST LKLY WRN KS OR WRN NE, AND MOV EWD.  IT MAY BE 
LARGE ENUF TO SHOVE SFC FNT SWD INTO NRN OK, AND THUS INTO
KS, THEN POTL WL BE SLGTLY HIER FOR IT TO FOCUS AFTN REDVLPMT.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALF WL STILL HV TO WAIT UNTIL UT LOW MOVS E,
AND THIS NOT LKLY IN NR FUTURE.  SUSPECT THAT ETA IS DRIVING
SHTWV INTO CO PLAINS TOO FAST WITH UPSTRM SYS WELL TO W.  BY
SLOWING THIS IMPL DN UNTIL FRI, WE MAY BE IN BETTER SHAPE IN
CNTRL HI PLAINS AREA OF CO/KS/NE ON FRI.  BRANICK/VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   70      80
SEVERE                      60      70
TORNADOES                   10      30  
TARGETABLE STORM            20      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23025   22527
SUPERCELL                 26518   26020

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1600    1500
1ST SEVERE RPT             1630    1530
1ST TORNADO                1730    1630