VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 8 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  NW OK
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  SUPPLEMENTAL
SNDGS ALL VORTEX NWS SITES. ARCHIVE II RQSTD ALL 88D SITES.

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: TEAMS ALREADY ON THE ROAD HEADING
FOR TARGET AREA IN NW OK VCNTY SFC BNDRY CRNTLY MOVG SLOLY
SSEWD. MRNG SNDGS AND MDL DERIVED FLDS INDC CAP WL BE WKR
TDA THAN YDA. THIS CPLD WITH STGR SFC BNDRY AND BETTER LL 
FORCING INDCS AN EARLIER SHOW WITH DVLPMT EXPCD BY EARLY 
AFTN. HI CAPES INDC POTL FOR RPD INTENSIFICATION. LL FLOW
EXPCD TO BACK DURG DAY SETTING UP INCREASINGLY FVBL SHEAR
AS SWLY FLOW ALF INCRSS. EXPC INIT DVLPMT FM NR FNT/DRYLN
TRPL PT IN EXTRM NERN TX PNHDL ENEWD ALG BNDRY TO NR GAG-WWD
AREA, WITH STORMS MOVG ENEWD ALG BNDRY. IF LL FLOW BACKS, 
THEN PTNS OF NW/NCNTRL OK AND S CNTRL KS WL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR PSBL STG TORNADOES. 

DRYLN/CDFNT FCST TO PUNCH EWD INTO ERN KS/CNTRL OK BY LATE
AFTN FRI WITH VRY UNSTBL AMS RMNG IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACRS
MST OF ERN OK AND SERN KS. MDLS PROGGING POTENT COMBINATION
OF SHEAR/INSTBY FM ERN KS INTO MO AND SRN IA, WITH EHI AS HI 
AS 8 OVR NRN MO. INSTBY WL PERSIST FRTHR S INTO OK/TX, BUT
SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS FVBL FRTHR S AND MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SQLN DVLPMT ALG EWD-MOVG FNT. FCST OF WK CAP AGAIN INDCS
EARLY DVLPMT ALG BNDRY BY ARND MIDDAY. CONCERNED THAT MUCH 
OF KS/MO MAY BE GUNGED BY CONVCTN LATR TDY AND TNGT, THUS WE
ARE SHIFTING AREA OF MAX TORNADO POTL ON DAY2 SLGTLY SWD FM
ERN KS/WRN MO INTO SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO. POTL WL EXIST 
FOR SGFNT SVR OUTBREAK ON FRI, ESPLY IF KS/MO AREA IS NOT 
MODIFIED BY STORMS TNGT. BRANICK/VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     100
SEVERE                      100      98
TORNADOES                    80      70
TARGETABLE STORM             80      80

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             22028   23038
SUPERCELL                 25020   26028

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1300    1200 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1330    1245
1ST TORNADO                1415    1330