VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNe 9 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO FOR DAMAGE SURVEY
TARGET AREA:  ERN TX PANHANDLE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE FROM VORTEX

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUCCESSFUL OPS ON THU HAVE
DEPLETED RESOURCES, PRECLUDING FURTHER FIELD OPS. SITN HAS
POTL TDA ESPLY INVOF OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS SRN OK. AMS RMNS 
QUITE UNSTBL NR RED RVR IN SW OK AND NCNTRL TX, AND FLOW 
THERE IS BACKED TO SET UP A DECENT VERT SHEAR PROFILE. ATTM
EXPC BNDRY TO RMN STNRY OR DRFT ONLY SLOLY SWD TWD RED RVR
TDA. WDSPRD CONVCTN N OF BNDRY ACRS OK DOES NOT APR TO BE
DVLPG SWD, AT LEAST AS FAR AS COLD TOPS ON SATLT, SO TARGET
AREA IN SW OK/NC TX MAY WELL RMN UNDISTURBED. DIFFERENT
STORY FRTHR N AS MUCH OF OK LKLY TO HV A HARD TIME RECOVERING
AND ANY RECOVERY FRTHR N IN KS - WHERE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WL
BE MORE FVBL - WL BE OFFSET BY INFLOW OF RAIN-COOLED AIR FM 
OK. SATLT INDCS ONE IMPL LIFTING RPDLY NEWD INTO NEB, WHICH 
IGNITED DRYLN EARLY THIS MRNG, AND ANOTHER BACK NR 4-CRNRS.
LATTER SHOULD SWING OUT INTO CNTRL PLAINS LTR TDA, WITH S 
END BRUSHING WM SECTOR IN SPS-LTS-CDS AREA. 

PROGS INDC LESS INSTBY AND SHEAR ON DAY2, AND THUS A LESSER
TORNADO POTL. WDSPRD CONVCTN AGN A PSBLTY AS SFC BNDRY MAY 
LINGER IN AREA, BUT PRIMARY RISK LKLY TO BE MULTICELL SVR 
AND, OF COURSE, HVY RAIN.

WITH LONG DAY AND NGT YDA FOR FIELD TEAMS, AND ACFT FLIGHT 
TIME ALL BUT EXHAUSTED, DECISION TDA IS TO FOCUS ON SURVEY
OF DMG FM YDA'S TORNADO OUTBREAK IN TX PNHDL. FORMAL FIELD 
OPS ARE HEREBY CONCLUDED FOR VORTEX-95, AND THIS WL BE THE 
FINAL VORTEX FCST DISCUSSION. WE WISH TO THANK THE
MANY AGENCIES, OFFICES, AND INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE HELPED IN
THE FIELD PHASES OF THIS PROJECT, AND HOPE THAT THESE 
DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEEN USEFUL. BRANICK/VESCIO  

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     100
SEVERE                      100      80
TORNADOES                    80      30
TARGETABLE STORM             80      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23530   24021
SUPERCELL                 26522   28015

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1200    1300
1ST SEVERE RPT             1230    1345
1ST TORNADO                1315    1500