VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT 13 JUNE 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: FIELD OPERATIONS HAVE ENDED
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DAY 1

AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER REGION LO LVL MSTR
IS EXPCD TO RMN CAPPED.  HOWEVER...STLT IMAGERY AND 700 MB
CHART FROM 12Z INDICATES BAND OF MID LVL MSTR ABV CAP THRU
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  SOME CHC HIGH BASED TSTMS TNGT IN WRM 
ADVCTN ZONE OVR PTNS WRN AND CNTRL KS.

...JOHNS


DAY 2B

UPR RDG AXIS BLDS OVR VORTEX RGN ON DY2.  SIG INCR IN LOW/
MID LVL TMPS WILL INCR ALREADY STG CAP ACRS RGN AND MID LVL
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME.  NWLY FLOW OVR RGN TDY 
WILL MV EAST PLACING MUCH OF RGN IN LGT/VARBL FLOW EXCEPT
EXTRM NERN KS.  HOT WX WILL NOT BE ENUF TO BRK CAP OVR OK/
TX/SWRN KS, HOWEVER SOME UPSLOPE AND WK DEEP LYR CONVRG CLD
LEAD TO INITIATION OVER NWRN KS AND MOST LIKELY OVR NE/SD/ND
DURG LATE AFTN.  CONVECTION WILL MV ESE AND MAY BRUSH NERN
KS LATE IN PD.  LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP ACRS RGN... 
PRIMARIARLY DUE TO HOT 700 TEMPS...SO CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLD
NON TARGETABLE SVR STM OVR NRN KS LATE IN PD. ANY SVR WHICH
DOES OCCUR SHLD BE PULSE/MULTICELL TYPE WITH CHCS OVR 
VORTEX AREA VERY SLIM.

...JANISH 



PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   30      20
SEVERE                      05      05
TORNADOES                   01      01
TARGETABLE STORM            01      01

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   -----
SUPERCELL                 -----   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----